Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing countries
This project aims to empirically assess the economic impacts of climate change on labor and capital flows in Brazil, using data from extreme weather events to inform adaptation strategies.
Projectdetails
Introduction
The fast pace at which the earth's climate is changing is one of the major challenges of our time. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural productivity in developing countries, which face uncertain adaptation paths.
Adjustment Mechanisms
The theoretical literature highlights two potential adjustment mechanisms:
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Reallocation of Economic Activity: This involves a shift towards non-agricultural sectors or colder regions. In the first case, lower agricultural productivity generates a shift in comparative advantage towards non-agricultural sectors and a reallocation of workers from agriculture towards manufacturing and services. However, this path might not be feasible for regions with low manufacturing productivity.
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Migration: In the second case, the lack of local employment opportunities can lead to migration towards other areas.
Literature Review
There is a rich theoretical and quantitative literature studying the relative importance of each margin of adjustment. However, these predictions are subject to a large level of uncertainty due to the lack of direct empirical evidence. In particular, we lack evidence on how labor and capital market frictions shape the adjustment to climate change.
Current Position
We are now in the position to produce this evidence. The last decade has been unusually hot, leading to many persistent extreme weather events in tropical countries, which triggered adaptation responses.
Project Overview
In this project, we use newly digitized administrative reports on extreme weather events that occurred in Brazil during the last two decades, a new meteorological measure of excess dryness relative to historical averages, and detailed social security and credit registry data to estimate the effects of climate change on:
i) The local economy of affected areas,
ii) The magnitude of the labor and capital flows it generates, and
iii) Factor allocation across sectors and firms in destination regions.
Financiële details & Tijdlijn
Financiële details
Subsidiebedrag | € 1.565.511 |
Totale projectbegroting | € 1.565.511 |
Tijdlijn
Startdatum | 1-3-2024 |
Einddatum | 28-2-2029 |
Subsidiejaar | 2024 |
Partners & Locaties
Projectpartners
- UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRApenvoerder
- FUNDACION CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS MONETARIOS Y FINANCIEROS
Land(en)
Vergelijkbare projecten binnen European Research Council
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Rural Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
RUSTDEC aims to uncover why many workers remain in agriculture despite low productivity by analyzing micro panel and geospatial data, focusing on labor reallocation and climate change impacts in rural areas.
Agricultural Productivity and Technology Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa
The project aims to enhance agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa by improving measurement methods, teaching farmers to assess input returns, and quantifying input misallocation.
Internal and international climate-induced migration, gendered inequalities and governance: understanding migration decisions, exploring migration experiences
GENDEREDCLIMATEMIG investigates climate-induced migration through a gendered lens in three countries, aiming to illuminate governance and decision-making processes affecting climate migrants.
The role of domestic markets and public policy for sustainable food systems: the case of Brazil
This project aims to map domestic food supply chains in Brazil using novel datasets to assess their environmental impacts and inform sustainable agricultural policies.
Climate Change and Human (Im)Mobility: The Role of Compound and Cascading Risks
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Caeli
Het project onderzoekt de haalbaarheid van een AI-systeem voor het real-time voorspellen van klimatologische rampen en hun economische impact op overheid, gemeenten, burgers en verzekeraars.
Testing optical solutions for calibrating models that predict behavior of soil bodies
Het project ontwikkelt een geïntegreerd systeem van optische sensoren en rekenmodellen om grondgedrag onder extreme weersomstandigheden te voorspellen, ter verbetering van infrastructuurbeheer.
Shared Socio-economic Pathways & Financial Risk for Companies
Oxari onderzoekt de economische voordelen voor beursgenoteerde bedrijven van het beperken van schadelijke uitstoot, in lijn met internationale klimaatdoelen zoals het Parijsakkoord.