Climate Change and Human (Im)Mobility: The Role of Compound and Cascading Risks

Introduction

The 2C-RISK project is the first to comprehensively analyze the interrelated effects of compound and cascading climatic and non-climatic risks on human mobility worldwide and to pioneer the empirical assessment and quantification of climate-related immobility. Climate change can have major implications for human mobility through its impacts on security, livelihoods, health, and well-being, potentially leading to increased displacement and migration.

Climate-related Immobility

At the same time, not everyone affected decides to move, and climatic risks and related impacts can also lead to heightened immobility. Patterns in (im)mobility are crucially shaped by a range of drivers and moderators influencing who becomes mobile, when, and why.

Understanding Mobility Outcomes

While the multicausal nature of climate-related (im)mobility has been recognized, there are considerable gaps in the understanding of how climatic risks interact with other compound drivers and risks in influencing mobility outcomes. Considering risks in isolation may miss crucial interdependencies between different risk types and related impacts over time and space.

Exploring Interdependencies

Exploring these interdependencies can fill in the missing links as to when and why households become mobile under climatic stress, and when and why they decide or are forced to stay put despite difficult circumstances.

Project Objectives

To this end, the 2C-RISK project:

1. Provides novel estimates of the effects of compound and cascading climatic and non-climatic risks and impacts on mobility outcomes.
2. Advances empirical research on climate-related immobility.
3. Employs innovative nowcasting and projection methods to explore potential changes in mobility in the short and long term.

Contribution to Policy

By laying novel foundations for understanding the conditions under which climate-related (im)mobility occurs and by identifying populations in situations of heightened distress, the 2C-RISK project will contribute to more informed policies aimed at safeguarding the well-being of populations in a changing climate.