Viral Narratives: The Role of Narratives for Economic Belief Formation
This project investigates the formation, virality, and persuasive effects of economic narratives through experiments, aiming to link them to beliefs and behaviors in labor markets.
Projectdetails
Introduction
This proposal seeks to study economic narratives. Narratives may both shape expectation formation and influence economic decisions. Using large-scale experiments, this proposal seeks to better understand the drivers of the virality of narratives as well as the mechanisms underlying their persuasive effects.
Data Combination
A key feature of this proposal is the combination of qualitative data on economic narratives, as measured in speech recordings, with quantitative data on beliefs and economic behaviors.
Part 1: Production and Transmission of Narratives
In Part 1, I seek to study the production and transmission of narratives.
Part 1a: Viral Narratives
In Part 1a, I plan to study which types of narratives about economic phenomena tend to get retold and thereby go viral. The experiments will examine:
- Which features of narratives are predictive of their virality
- How narratives mutate through the transmission process
Part 1b: Incentives and Distortions
In Part 1b, I plan to study how incentives to entertain shape people’s narratives and how the resulting distortions affect downstream belief formation.
Part 2: Administrative Data and Economic Narratives
Part 2 aims to combine administrative data on high-stakes economic behaviors with economic narratives, as measured with speech recordings.
Labor Market Effects of AI
I aim to measure narratives about the labor market effects of Artificial Intelligence in large representative samples as well as among journalists, politicians, and labor market experts. I then plan to relate narratives to important labor market behaviors and educational choices and to examine their origins.
Part 3: Mechanisms of Persuasiveness
Finally, Part 3 proposes to study the mechanisms behind the persuasiveness of narratives. Our experiments will allow us to cleanly identify how narratives affect belief updating and confidence compared to well-defined Bayesian benchmarks.
Mental Simulation
We plan to examine the mechanisms, with a particular focus on how narratives facilitate the process of mental simulation.
Conclusion
These projects trace the journey of economic narratives from their inception and spread to their impacts on behaviors and beliefs, and unveil the underlying cognitive and social mechanisms.
Financiële details & Tijdlijn
Financiële details
Subsidiebedrag | € 1.500.000 |
Totale projectbegroting | € 1.500.000 |
Tijdlijn
Startdatum | 1-1-2025 |
Einddatum | 31-12-2029 |
Subsidiejaar | 2025 |
Partners & Locaties
Projectpartners
- UNIVERSITAT ZU KOLNpenvoerder
Land(en)
Vergelijkbare projecten binnen European Research Council
Project | Regeling | Bedrag | Jaar | Actie |
---|---|---|---|---|
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Narrative Archetypes for Artificial IntelligenceAI STORIES investigates how narrative archetypes in training data influence biases in AI outputs, aiming to develop a narratology of AI to enhance cultural diversity and inform stakeholders. | ERC Advanced... | € 2.500.000 | 2024 | Details |
The Economics and Politics of Alternative RealitiesThis project models the supply and demand for alternative realities shaped by misinformation, analyzing their impact on political beliefs and behaviors while generating testable predictions. | ERC Starting... | € 1.297.878 | 2024 | Details |
Great Expectations: Macroeconomic Implications of Forecasting Behavior
This project aims to enhance understanding of expectation formation's economic impact through empirical research and a new theoretical framework, guiding policy decisions and communication strategies.
Completing the revolution : Enhancing the reality, the principles, and the impact of economics' credibility revolution
This project aims to enhance the credibility of economic policy evaluations by proposing new estimators and testing the impact of an online course on understanding these evaluations among diverse populations.
Memory, Beliefs, and Economic Decisions
This project examines how selective memory influences economic decisions by shaping beliefs and preferences through environmental cues and past experiences.
Narrative Archetypes for Artificial Intelligence
AI STORIES investigates how narrative archetypes in training data influence biases in AI outputs, aiming to develop a narratology of AI to enhance cultural diversity and inform stakeholders.
The Economics and Politics of Alternative Realities
This project models the supply and demand for alternative realities shaped by misinformation, analyzing their impact on political beliefs and behaviors while generating testable predictions.