ADAPTIVE TRANSPORT SYSTEMS WITH HOLISTIC REPRESENTATION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Introduction

Transport systems are complex with various entities across different decision-making levels. There is currently no comprehensive way to model these entities and their interactions, which prevents utilizing the full potential of the system.

Need for Comprehensive Modeling

For efficient and sustainable transportation, we need to model the perspective of both the supply (e.g., services, infrastructure) and the demand side (e.g., preferences of users). Only then can a holistic modeling framework be developed where the decisions at different levels learn from one another and are adapted continuously in a robust way while accommodating the different preferences.

Proposed Framework

I propose a holistic adaptive modeling framework that considers the interaction between different levels, both on the supply and demand sides, in order to adapt the decisions towards increased efficiency and sustainability.

Challenges in Current Modeling

This necessitates a paradigm change in modeling as it is challenging to maintain robustness across different time-scales at the network level. Even though integrated models for multiple decision-making levels (strategic, tactical, operational) are a trend, they only allow a reactive ex-post assessment but are not dynamically coupled (not self-learning).

Methodology

I plan to achieve this by developing model-based adaptive optimization and learning methods with my expertise in optimization and behavioral modeling. For example:

1. Based on the performance of the routing decisions at the operational level in terms of delays, the decisions on fleet sizing and/or capacity of facilities will be adapted.
2. Similarly, based on a continuous learning of the preferences of users, transport decisions will be adapted.

Expected Outcomes

ADAPT-OR will lead to new models and algorithms for transportation researchers (and beyond) with self-learning capabilities. This capability will enable:

• Service providers to adapt and maintain their business.
• Users to receive better services.
• Society to reach sustainable transport solutions addressing one of the EU’s grand challenges.