Operational Heat-Health-Social Early Warning System

Introduction

Ambient temperatures are associated with more than 5 million annual deaths globally, 300,000 of which in Western Europe alone. Many European countries have implemented heat early warning systems, but they are generally based on temperature thresholds from weather forecasts that do not account for the inequalities in vulnerability of the exposed populations.

Project Overview

This ERC-funded project will create the first operational Heat-Health-Social Early Warning System (HHS-EWS) by integrating:

• Weather forecasting
• Environmental epidemiology
• The social drivers of vulnerability

Methodology

Towards this aim, I will:

1. Calibrate epidemiological models to transform bias-corrected weather forecasts into predictions of health outcomes.
2. Validate the path from ground-breaking research to innovation by analysing and comparing the spatiotemporal scales of predictability.
3. Determine if the epidemiological models reduce or suppress the window of predictability of the weather forecasts.

Expected Outcomes

HHS-EWS will develop an operational, fit-for-purpose early warning system representing the health impacts of environmental temperatures. This system will better inform potential end-users, such as public health agencies, to activate emergency plans directly targeting vulnerable groups.