Climate Policy vs Economic Growth: Opinions, Models, and Novel Strategies

Introduction

Climate change has revived the debate on growth vs. environment, which may intensify in the coming years. This project studies to what extent concerns about economic growth, ranging from pro- to anti-growth, hamper social-political support for ambitious climate policy, and how this can be amended.

Methodology

Using surveys, experiments, and interviews, the project assesses whether beliefs about growth vs. environment affect policy opinions of distinct stakeholders, including:

1. Voters
2. Policymakers
3. Journalists

It also examines if this is moderated by preferences regarding instrument types, such as standards, taxes, or subsidies.

Role of Information

The project further tests the role of information by comparing the effect of distinct beyond-GDP metrics on views about growth vs. climate policy.

Paris Agreement and National Policies

In addition, it studies how growth concerns relate to the design of pledges in the Paris Agreement, as these demarcate national climate policies.

Modelling Approach

Based on collected data and derived insights, the project undertakes system-dynamics and agent-based modelling to study the co-dynamics of climate-policy design and support. This will create models of the “dynamic policy-support cycle” (DPSC), comprising:

• Policy design
• Economic and emission impacts
• Opinion dynamics (i.e., support/resistance)
• Policy adaptation

It involves comparing growth strategies and climate policies using distinct beyond-GDP metrics and connecting this to stakeholder opinion dynamics.

Exploring Agrowth Strategies

Informed by the model results, the project explores whether an agrowth strategy, which is cautious towards both economic and climate risks, can increase support for ambitious climate policy. Given stakeholder diversity, interviews will be performed to decide on tailored strategies in this respect.

Related Concepts

Similar proposals to agrowth, notably under the label of “post-growth,” will be examined as well.

Ultimate Aim

The ultimate aim is to learn about dynamic packages with climate-policy instruments and a/post-growth measures that culminate in majority support for ambitious climate policy.