Beyond the tipping point: Cascading transitions in the behavioral and social sciences

Introduction

Tipping points or phase transitions separate stable states in psycho-social systems. Examples are quitting smoking, radicalization, and dropping out of school. Two knowledge gaps prevent our ability to predict and control these tipping points.

Knowledge Gaps

1. Mathematical Models: First, we miss explanatory mathematical models of such non-linear processes.
2. Multilevel Character: Second, we ignore the multilevel character of psycho-social transitions.

I contend that important changes in many psycho-social systems are cascading transitions, where individual transitions trigger or are triggered by social transitions. The cascade of radicalization of individuals in the context of political polarization in societies is an example of such a multilevel process.

Scientific Breakthrough

Being able to predict and control cascading transitions in psycho-social systems would be a major scientific breakthrough.

Methodology Development

As an expert in complex systems research in the behavioral and social sciences, with an extensive track record in studying single-level psychological transition processes (e.g., in perception, sleep, disorders, cognition, and attitudes), my key objective is to develop a novel and broadly applicable methodology to study multilevel cascading transitions in psycho-social systems.

This methodology comprises:

• Theory construction in the form of mathematical modeling
• Innovative empirical analyses

Case Studies

I will do so by studying three important examples: a) Opinion change from individuals to populations and back
b) Learning, where progression and drop-out are embedded in collective processes
c) Addiction, where transitions to addiction or abstinence within individuals are part of cascading epidemiological changes of substance use in populations

Broader Impact

Beyond its immediate utility in these three cases, I envisage this novel, highly interdisciplinary project to stimulate future scientific research on cascading transitions in other disciplines, such as climate research, and to have significant impact on practices in conflict management, healthcare, and education.