sociogeNEsis of criMinal nEtworks: reconStruction, dIscovery and diSruption

Introduction

Europol defines criminal networks as a modern version of the Hydra mythological creature, with obscure genesis, fluid structure, and multifaceted evolutions.

Project Overview

Leveraging a unique synergy between Social Sciences and Statistics, NEMESIS departs from current practice to translate the main obstacles (i.e., data incompleteness and complexity) underlying the reconstruction, discovery, and disruption of these modern criminal networks into a unique resource for crucially expanding available knowledge and policies.

Key Observations

This ambitious perspective builds on three somewhat overlooked, yet fundamental, observations:

1. Data Missingness: Data missingness in criminal networks can be, in fact, a fundamental source of information on the structure and secrecy strategies of organized crime, and, as such, should be embraced and not disregarded for network reconstruction.

2. Complexity of Interactions: The complexity and multiplexity of covert and overt interactions among criminals may hide a wealth of yet unexplored knowledge on the formation, mutation, and sociogenesis of criminal networks, hence invaluable for their discovery.

3. Regeneration Processes: “Cutting” Hydra heads without realistic predictions of the corresponding regeneration processes undermines not only the development of innovative law-enforcement disruption strategies but also the identification of more nuanced high-value targets.

Methodology

NEMESIS transforms these perspectives into rigorous, interpretable, and practically impactful generative statistical models of criminal networks. It introduces innovative concepts of:

• Secret criminal species
• Covert networking activity codes
• Dark evolutionary trees

Expected Impact

This perspective is expected to revolutionize the current practice of conceptualizing, reconstructing, analyzing, and disrupting criminal networks, while opening new avenues for the creation of frontier data-related resources, social theories, law-enforcement strategies, and public policies.