Feedback mechanisms approach to resolve regime shifts in ecological systems.

Introduction

Our planet is changing at a pace never experienced before. Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by multiple anthropogenic pressures and are experiencing abrupt changes, sometimes leading to regime shifts. Marine ecosystems are prone to these dynamics, and regime shifts are at the spotlight of research which seeks to reduce the uncertainties related to our incomplete understanding of these processes.

Key Questions

Three main questions need to be answered to understand regime shifts:

1. When do they happen? (i.e. detection)
2. Why do they happen? (i.e. drivers and characteristics)
3. How do they happen? (i.e. mechanisms)

Present literature has focused mainly on detecting regime shifts, neglecting feedbacks and how ecosystems function. This ignorance has limited the causal understanding of these phenomena and has hindered the capacity to predict them, a fundamental step under global changes.

Project Overview

FEEDRES brings feedback mechanisms to the fore and aims at responding to all three challenges to understand and project regime shifts. To fulfill this, FEEDRES will develop a cutting-edge methodological framework combining methods from system dynamics theory and ecology.

Methodological Steps

FEEDRES will follow three steps:

1. Map worldwide marine regime shifts
   Through a systematic mapping, FEEDRES will assess the extent of regime shifts, highlighting knowledge gaps (when).

2. Empirically study the important structural elements and connections
   This will characterize marine systems under regime shifts (from populations to socio-ecological systems). FEEDRES will apply a two-step modeling approach to understand how the system changes during regime shifts (why).

3. Develop mechanistic models
   These models will help understand how changes in feedback mechanisms mediate marine regime shifts (how).

Expected Outcomes

Based on the knowledge developed, FEEDRES will identify common feedback types in marine systems and will project the likelihood of regime shifts. FEEDRES will revolutionize ecosystem science and will increase the understanding of how complex systems behave under cumulative stressors.