Competition in the Digital Era: Technology and Geopolitics in the XXI Century

Introduction

The Competition in the Digital Era (CODE) project investigates the competition between China, Europe, and the United States (US) for access and control of three critical technological sectors: semiconductors, cloud computing, and space. These sectors are, respectively, the backbone, the brain, and the legs of the current wave of technological innovation, and they have a fundamental impact on economic, military, and geopolitical hierarchies.

Methodology

CODE proposes a multidisciplinary theoretical framework and an original mixed-method approach to study technology competition in these sectors.

Main Hypothesis

The main hypothesis of the project is that the very technological characteristics of the industrial sectors are key to explain when and why China, Europe, and the US succeed in some sectors and struggle in others.

Factors Influencing Competition

Specifically, different combinations of the following factors generate different hypotheses on the ability of China and Europe to compete with the US in semiconductors, cloud, and space:

1. Cycle of Technological Change: The speed at which technologies evolve in each industrial sector.
2. Degree of Modularity: The possibility to divide complex technical systems into components and outsource them to external suppliers.

Risk and Gain

CODE is a high-risk project because it investigates technologically complex and highly politicized sectors.

High-Gain Aspects

Yet, it is also a high-gain project as it simultaneously advances the debate on:

• International relations (US-China geopolitical transition, Europe’s role in the world)
• Political economy (role of the state in technology innovation, role of global value chains)
• Management and innovation (how technology competition unfolds in highly politicized sectors)