Politicians under Radical Uncertainty: How Uncertain Phenomena Influence Political Elites' Behavior

Introduction

Political elites—political representatives who can take binding decisions, e.g. ministers, parliamentarians, local politicians—face numerous radically uncertain phenomena, from Covid-19 to the long-term effects of Brexit. Radical uncertainty is characterized by manifold unknowns, ambiguity, and vagueness. It differs fundamentally from resolvable uncertainty, which refers to situations in which it is possible to assign probabilities to outcomes, like the electoral consequences of welfare retrenchment.

Research Focus

RADIUNCE will explore how these phenomena influence political elites' behavior. Key questions include:

1. Do they "avoid" uncertainty, as some did with the coronavirus?
2. Do they use rules of thumb, "heuristics," e.g. comparing Covid-19 to the flu?
3. Do they display other behavioral responses?

Answering these questions is urgent, as different responses have different outcomes that may impact how representative democracies function and how effective they are at solving problems. For example, avoiding a virus may cost lives, while using heuristics may result in faulty courses of action.

Project Aim

RADIUNCE's aim is to develop a theoretical model of how political elites respond to both radically and resolvably uncertain phenomena. We will focus on four countries with different institutional opportunities and constraints for responding to uncertainty:

• Germany
• The Netherlands
• The United Kingdom
• The United States

The time frame for this study will be from 1996 to 2021.

Methodology

The model will be multidisciplinary, integrating insights from:

• Political science
• Behavioral economics
• Decision theory
• Psychology
• Public administration

We will collect new, unique comparative data from politicians through an innovative combination of automated text analysis and survey experiments.

Approach

Taking a multimethods approach, we will integrate quantitative data with qualitative methods, including:

• Process tracing
• Qualitative Comparative Analysis
• Interviews

The new model will explain how political elites respond to the challenges and opportunities in our fast-paced world, from digitalization to Covid-19 to migration.