Pension reforms and healthy ageing in Italy and Europe: quasi-natural experimental analysis of linked health and pension datasets

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many European countries to spend money that they do not have. This is creating unprecedented levels of debt and will inevitably lead to pressure for retrenchment in social welfare, with pensions seen as a key target.

Pension Protection Variability

While some nations will seek to protect pensions, others will not. This raises important questions regarding the impact of pension reforms on healthy ageing.

Research Questions

• How will these pension reforms impact healthy ageing?
• Will such reforms save money or perversely pass costs onto healthcare and other welfare systems?

Proposed Research Programme

We propose an ambitious research programme to inform these critical questions. Our proposed research combines:

1. Analysis of the Surveys on Health, Retirement and Ageing in Europe (SHARE) in 19 EU countries.
2. Specific quasi-natural experiment studies of pension reforms:
   • Increasing pensionable ages (UK 1995 Pension Act and Italy 2011 Fornero Reform).
   • Reducing pension payments (Netherlands 2013 Pension Reductions and Greece Katrougas Law 2016).

Innovative Data Linkages

Additionally, the project will create innovative administrative-record linkages in Italian pension and health system data to quantify occupation-specific mortalities and unequal survival times.

Research Background

Overall, it builds on the PI’s strong track record in evaluating health impacts of austerity and natural experiment research designs.

Anticipated Findings

The anticipated findings will test critical ideas about a ‘health-promoting pension system’ and about which occupational groups may merit additional compensation due to lower survival times.

Policy Implications

It will help inform critical policy debates by revealing the hidden and unanticipated health consequences of pension reforms and associated inequalities.