Biodiversity dynamics across a continuum of space, time, and their scales

Introduction

We face an unprecedented threat from global alteration of nature and biodiversity, but we still lack rigorous estimates of how fast, where, and at which scales biodiversity changes. Studies report fragmented and seemingly contradictory results, suffer from mismatches in biodiversity metrics, mismatches in temporal and spatial grains, and are constrained by huge data gaps.

Challenges in Biodiversity Studies

Moreover, local loss and gain of biodiversity is decoupled from changes in countries or continents, with opposing directions at different scales being plausible. A quantitative synthesis that connects all this, and bridges the gaps, is needed.

Objectives of BEAST

The objective of BEAST is to map and interpolate temporal biodiversity change in Europe, the US, and the world, across continuous space, time, and their grains, from locations as small as 1 m to countries and continents, over the last ca 40 years, for birds, plants, and butterflies.

Methodology

To do this, we will combine data from local time series with high-quality gridded atlas data from countries and continents. We will use a new cross-scale model to interpolate biodiversity change jointly across space and time, and across the data gaps.

Testing Approaches

We will test if temporal change of diversity, distributions, and turnover can be estimated from:

1. Static patterns of diversity and distributions
2. Data lacking temporal replication
3. Space-for-time substitution of spatial vs temporal species turnover
4. Spaceborne remotely sensed spectral diversity and turnover

These methods will enable integration of heterogeneous and messy biodiversity data, and they will improve estimates of change in data-poor regions of the global South.

Expected Outcomes

BEAST will deliver the first integrative statistical model revealing, for the first time, how multiple facets of biodiversity change across scales. It will show which regions, habitats, and biomes undergo the most pronounced change, which is critical for informed large-scale conservation policy.